Looking back into my crystal ball
In early 2019 I dusted off the crystal ball and wrote down my predictions for the year ahead. It's only fair I mark my own homework.
Consolidation: got that one right
I predicted more acquisitions of smaller software firms by the bigger players, backed by private equity. That's pretty much been the story of investment technology ever since.
It's a pattern I've watched play out again and again. The niche players build the data and the workflow. The platforms buy them once it's proven valuable enough to matter. Bloomberg's acquisition of Canoe Intelligence this summer is a good recent example, folding a specialist private markets data business into a much bigger platform. (The TRADE)
For anyone in talent, that matters. Acquisitions rarely just move data. They move teams, priorities and people's careers with them.
AI in recruitment: right, but not how I expected
I said AI would have a big impact on recruitment. It has, just not quite the way I imagined.
The biggest change I see day to day is CVs. Every CV now reads like it was written by the same person, because in a way it was. AI has made everyone look impressive on paper, which means the CV has stopped being the signal. It's just the ticket to a conversation.
AI has made everyone easier to shortlist. It hasn't made anyone easier to hire.
Video: half right
I predicted online video would take off. It did, everywhere. What I didn't predict is that one of the most effective things I do now is send a 30-second voice note. With every inbox full of AI-personalised messages, something that obviously took a human a bit of effort really stands out.
What I didn't see coming
Two things. First, that the firms taking talent from this market wouldn't always be in it. A CPO told me recently they barely lose people to traditional competitors any more. They lose them to AI labs paying money this market can't match.
Second, that companies would hire fewer people but set a much higher bar for each one. AI has made good people more productive, not less valuable.
Which is why recruitment isn't a numbers game any more, if it ever was. The value isn't in who has the biggest database. It's in helping a business work out who it really needs, why they should join, and then running a process good enough to land them.
Let's see how this one reads in 2033.
Photo: SpaceX on Unsplash